ACUS01 KWNS 071241
SWODY1
SPC AC 071240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind
gusts are possible today into this evening, across parts of the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. A few marginally severe storms could also
develop in the central Gulf Coast states from afternoon into the
overnight period.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving across the central Plains will
continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day, progressing
across the Mid MS and OH Valleys. Surface low attendant to this
system will move from its current location over western Upper MI
eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and southeastern ON into
southern QC. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep
eastward/southeastward across the OH and TN Valley tonight,
continuing eastward into the Mid-Atlantic overnight.

...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
The cold front is forecast to interact with low-level moisture
advecting northward/northeastward in response to the overall system
evolution. Recent surface analysis placed mid 50s dewpoints just
ahead of this front across east-central/southeast MO and southern
IL. Expectation is for mid-50s dewpoints to persist ahead of the
front over much of the OH Valley, with greater dewpoints anticipated
farther south (i.e. low 60s across the TN Valley and mid 60s across
the Southeast). However, even with this increasing moisture, airmass
destabilization is uncertain, owing to seasonally warm mid-level
temperatures and widespread cloudiness. The best forcing for ascent
is expected during the afternoon and evening across the middle/upper
OH Valley and northern TN Valley, but the lack of surface
destabilization will likely result in a predominantly elevated and
anafrontal character to thunderstorms in this region. A few
instances of isolated hail are possible.

Modest surface-based buoyancy is possible farther south from
south-central KY through Middle TN where dewpoints preceding the
front will likely be the in the low 60s. Robust westerly flow aloft
will support strong deep-layer shear, which could result in some
modest thunderstorms organization along and ahead of the cold front.
Frontal forcing will favor a linear storm mode, with some bowing
segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Some hail is possible
as well.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Greater low-level moisture is anticipated across this region than
areas farther north. However, overall forcing for ascent, both
synoptically and along the front, will be weaker. Primary forcing
across this region will likely be warm-air advection, which leads to
greater uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly
given the cloud cover expected. If an updraft is able to mature and
persist, there will likely be enough low-level helicity to support a
limited tornado risk.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/07/2025

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