ACUS03 KWNS 180731
SWODY3
SPC AC 180730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley,
Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will stall and perhaps start to retrograde across
parts of the Upper Midwest on Monday. A surface low in the MO/IL
region will start to occlude during the day. A cold front will move
east through the period with a warm front across the Ohio Valley.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley...

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing amid broad isentropic ascent
and moderate elevated instability along the warm front in southern
Illinois and Indiana and vicinity on Monday morning. South of this
morning activity, where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are
anticipated, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop
amid daytime heating. As 55 to 65 knots of mid-level flow
overspreads the warm sector, strong shear will be present for
supercells. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat
initially, as low-level flow will likely be veered. However,
low-level shear should be strong enough to support some tornado
threat during the afternoon/evening. As storms grow upscale, one or
more bowing segments may develop with an increased damaging wind
threat during the evening and perhaps persisting into the overnight period.

..Bentley.. 05/18/2025

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