ABNT20 KNHC 221147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few
hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde
Islands has increased since yesterday.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter
part of this week while while the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow
development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  By the latter part
of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more
northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week
when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the
Bahamas.  Regardless of development, gusty winds and showers are
expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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