ACUS02 KWNS 040551
SWODY2
SPC AC 040549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into
parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional
strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast
and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity.

...Synopsis...
Two upper-level lows, one in the Ohio Valley and the other in the
Southwest, will make slow eastward progress on Monday. A cold front
from the Upper Ohio Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic and
central Florida will be a focus for convection during the afternoon.
In the southern High Plains, a surface trough/dryline will form and
promote afternoon thunderstorms as greater moisture moves westward
into the region.

...Southern High Plains into Central Texas...
As the upper low advances toward the region late Sunday into Monday,
some convection is possible from northeast New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Low cloud cover is also expected
along with the moisture returning northwest across Texas into
eastern New Mexico. While these will be complicating factors in the
forecast, the approach of the upper low and embedded perturbations
will encourage the development of a dryline from far eastern New
Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Strong heating along this dryline,
where upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will reside, will drive storm
development during the afternoon. Hodographs will initially be
rather straight. Splitting supercells capable of large/very-large
hail and severe winds are probable. During the early evening, the
low-level jet will strengthen. Moisture return will increase and
low-level hodographs will become larger. A zone of greater tornado
potential is evident from southern portions of the South Plains into
the northern Permian Basin, particularly for supercells lasting into
the early evening.

The evolution of convection becomes a bit more uncertain into the
later evening. The ramp up in the low-level jet should eventually
promote upscale growth into a cluster/MCS. This activity could
persist into parts of central Texas. Model guidance continues to
differ on the placement of this feature. The exact track will depend
largely on how far north the greater moisture is able to advect.
Severe winds would be the primary threat with these storms, though
low-level shear would also support some tornado risk even with a
linear mode. During the overnight and into Tuesday morning, the
greatest mid-level height falls will occur in the southern High
Plains. An additional cluster/MCS on the retreating dryline. How
severe this activity will be is unclear given the time of day and
the preceding convection.

...Florida...
With cold temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C) remaining over the
Peninsula and stronger surface heating expected to occur, a few
strong to severe storms will again be possible along the eastern sea
breeze boundary. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective
shear (stronger to the north) will promote supercell structures
capable of large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado would be
possible with storms that interact favorably with the sea breeze boundary.

...Mid-Atlantic into Upper Ohio Valley...
While some precipitation and cloud cover may occur early Monday
morning, models continue to show agreement that pockets of surface
heating will promote around 1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Enhanced
mid-level winds around the Ohio Valley upper low will foster 40-45
kts of effective shear. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging
winds will be possible with the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 05/04/2025

$$
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