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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
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Mike Powell | All | DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective |
August 3, 2025 9:13 AM * |
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ACUS01 KWNS 031251 SWODY1 SPC AC 031249 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in the Northwest during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains... A decaying MCS is currently moving through the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Expectation is for this system to continue south-southeastward for the next several hours while gradually weakening. Cool outflow and cloud cover associated with this system will have an impact on the severe potential across the region today, leading to above-average uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution. The overall environment from the TX Panhandle southward through the South Plains and eastward into western OK and northwest TX will be characterized by moderate northwesterly flow aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and afternoon surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. These conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy across much of the region, but areas under the influence of the MCS's outflow and/or cloud cover will likely remain capped due to limited/filtered diurnal heating. Current expectation is for the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to remain south of the outflow, allowing for strong heating and airmass destabilization. The outflow is expected to act as the primary impetus for convective initiation across the region this afternoon. Additional areas of low-level convergence near a weak surface low over southeast NM and the weak lee troughing extending from southeast CO across eastern NM could result in a few storms as well. Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow veering to northwesterly in the mid levels will result in moderate vertical shear, with the overall wind profile quite supportive for large hail. As such, there is a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, some upscale growth into one or more linear clusters with an increased risk for damaging gusts is possible. ...Central High Plains... Early morning surface analysis placed a broad area of low pressure from northeast CO into southwest SD. A low is expected develop within this region by the early afternoon, and low-level convergence in the vicinity of this low will likely result in thunderstorm initiation. Late afternoon initiation is possible along the weak lee trough across eastern WY as well. Moderate buoyancy will support strong updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop. ...Northwest... Shortwave trough currently off the northern CA coast is forecast to continue northeastward today, with lift associated with this system impinging on the region by the early afternoon. Increasing mid-level moisture (already apparent on the 12Z BOI sounding) will help support moderate buoyancy and the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave will increase deep-layer shear to 30-40 kt, supporting some storm organization. Steep lapse rates with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for high-based semi-organized clusters will favor strong downdrafts capable of occasional severe gusts with the stronger storms. Small hail will also be possible with any more persistent clusters or weak supercell structures despite the limited buoyancy. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/03/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
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