MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 022301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022301 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1873
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Areas affected...Eastern CO...western KS...southwest NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566...

Valid 022301Z - 030030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566 continues.

SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is expected into the
early evening. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is moving eastward across
east-central CO as of 23 UTC. Some strengthening of updrafts within
the cluster has been noted over the last hour, and a 68 mph gust was
recently observed in Adams County, along with 1-inch hail in Lincoln
County. Recent mesoanalyses depict rather strong CINH immediately
downstream of this cluster, and cumulus remains rather limited into
far eastern CO, so this cluster may remain loosely organized in the
short term. However, low/midlevel lapse rates are quite steep, and
localized severe gusts and hail will continue to be possible with
this cluster. 

Stronger instability and weaker CINH are in place farther east
toward the CO/KS border. Some uptick in storm intensity and
organization will be possible as ongoing convection moves into this
more favorable environment early this evening. Some strengthening of
the low-level jet is also expected near/after 00Z, which could
result in somewhat more organized upscale growth. Downstream watch
issuance is possible if trends support an increasing threat for
organized severe storms into this evening.

..Dean/Gleason.. 08/02/2025

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40940336 40970201 40430142 38760144 37800143 37710252
            37910343 38250416 39050389 39850435 40860412 40940336 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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