ACUS02 KWNS 150538
SWODY2
SPC AC 150536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the central Plains.

...Central/Southern Plains...

A positively tilted upper shortwave trough will slowly develop east
from the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies to the
northern/central High Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected
to remain fairly weak, limiting stronger vertical shear. At the
surface, a weak cold front will extend from northern MN into
western/central NE by 00z. A secondary weak surface trough will
extend southward across eastern CO into the southern High Plains.
Ahead of these surface features, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints
will be in place beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. This
will allow for moderate destabilization across a mostly uncapped
warm sector.

Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper trough will
likely be ill-timed with peak heating, and may not arrive across the
region until after 00z. Nevertheless, low-level frontal convergence
may support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development near the
surface cold front by late afternoon. Given boundary-parallel
deep-layer flow, this activity may quickly become elevated/undercut
by the surface front. Nevertheless, sufficient instability, steep
low-level lapse rates and at least modest effective shear (less than
25 kt) should support an isolated/marginal severe wind/hail risk
from portions of northeast CO/northwest KS into western/central NE
and south-central SD through the evening.

Additional storms may develop near the weak surface trough from
southeastern CO/eastern NM and spread east into adjacent portions of
southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Instability and shear are
expected to be very modest across these areas. However, a deeply
mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates could support
locally gusty winds with this activity.

...NC/VA Tidewater...

A coastal low will be located near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning.
Low-level flow will be enhanced near/north of the low center, with
some weak instability near the coast. Locally strong gusts may
accompany showers and thunderstorms for a few hours during the
morning. As the low drifts north through the day, more substantial
instability is expected to remain offshore.

..Leitman.. 09/15/2025

$$
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