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Mike Powell | All | DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic |
August 1, 2025 7:15 AM * |
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ACUS02 KWNS 010545 SWODY2 SPC AC 010543 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...High Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central Rockies on Saturday. Ahead of the ridge, mid-level flow will be northwesterly across much of the High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Great Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass by afternoon. As surface heating takes place during the day, scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain of the central Rockies, and spread eastward into the central High Plains. A cluster or line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Model consensus on Saturday suggests that the strongest instability will develop from eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwest Nebraska, with MLCAPE likely to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings near Goodland, Kansas in the early evening have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. From the surface to 700 mb, the temperature profile is nearly dry adiabatic, and surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are around 30 degrees F. This environment should produce high cloud bases, with a potential for isolated damaging gusts. Supercells and/or short multicell line segments will be possible, and isolated large hail will be possible with rotating cells. ...Southeast... A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf Coast states on Saturday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be the lower to mid 70s F across southern Alabama, southern Georgia and Florida. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized across this same area. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z across southern Georgia have inverted-V profiles with very steep lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb. This could be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger multicells during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
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