ACUS01 KWNS 141242
SWODY1
SPC AC 141240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of
the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more
concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of
the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border.

...Dakotas/Western Minnesota...
Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast
to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A
low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards
evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the
low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor
of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central SD into central ND
later today. In the wake of ongoing precipitation this morning,
renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across
the Dakotas along a cold front as ascent with the consolidating and
increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although
the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with
multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the
aforementioned surface low/Slight Risk could plausibly acquire
sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential.
Overall intensities should diminish later this evening.

...Central Great Plains...
In the wake of overnight storms, boundary-layer heating of a
seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong
buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind
fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient
overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and
supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A
confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg
C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more
concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the NE/KS border
Slight Risk area.

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly
cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell
structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and
hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper
trough should tend to temper overall coverage.

...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley...
Ample buoyancy along and southwest of a warm front should aid in a
few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon
storms. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak within the
mid-level ridge, suggesting a predominant pulse mode, supporting a
minimal threat for organized severe storms.

..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/14/2025

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