ACUS02 KWNS 300601
SWODY2
SPC AC 300559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from
central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the
Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to
severe winds and hail.

...Synopsis...
A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the
lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday,
with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the
Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged
to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it
shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before
moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight.  A trailing
cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the
Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period.

...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas...
Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the
edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late
morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will
be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.
Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great
Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower
Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are
expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates,
sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging
winds will be possible.

Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few
supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the
dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is
weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should
be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline
will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in
this regime would be capable of large to very large hail.

...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma...
Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would
likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and
damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into
an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the
period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of
the D2 period.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025

$$
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