FOUS30 KWBC 290739
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025 - 12Z Thu Oct 30 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

Rainfall is expected to overspread the Tennessee/Ohio Valley with
anomalous low- level moisture transport driving east-southeast
moisture transport into the Southern/Central Appalachians as a
closed upper low swivels from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley. HREF
neighborhood probs for >2" are relatively high in-of the Blue 
Ridge from Virginia down into the western Carolinas (60-90%) with a
vast majority of the rain coming from shallow convective processes
focused within the terrain. Large scale forcing across the 
aforementioned areas will be the primary driver for the heavy rain 
scenario, however a tongue of elevated theta_E is expected to 
advect off the Atlantic into the Central Apps/Blue Ridge leading to
a greater potential for that low- topped convection to impact 
these zones. A Marginal Risk area remains in effect for this part
of the nation.

Campbell/Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 30 2025 - 12Z Fri Oct 31 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST...

This system is forecast to track to the northeast as the 
associated surface low strengthens over the Mid-Atlantic onward to 
the Northeast. Heavy rain will accompany the low and overspread the
region. The best threat for convective enhancement leading to 
better rates >1"/hr and some minor training off steady southeast 
flow off the Atlantic will occur from southeast Pennsylvania up 
through New Jersey, New York City metro, and western Long Island 
to about the I-95 corridor in Connecticut. A Marginal Risk for 
excessive rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns in that 
urbanized corridor of the Northeastern U.S. remains for this period.

Campbell/Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 31 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 01 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN 
WASHINGTON...

Heavy precipitation is likely Friday into Saturday for portions of
the Pacific Northwest as a moderately strong atmospheric river
streams onshore ahead of a larger northeast Pacific low. Areal
averages of 1 to 3 inches will be common with the potential for 
local maximums of 4+ inches. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall
and isolated flash flooding concerns is in effect for western
Washington. Most precipitation is forecast to stay rain other 
than snow even in the highest peaks of the Olympics through Friday,
with more snow in the Cascades. 

Campbell
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