FOUS30 KWBC 280759
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 28 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025 - 12Z Thu Oct 30 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

Rainfall is expected to overspread the Tennessee/Ohio Valley with 
anomalous low- level moisture transport driving east-southeast 
moisture transport into the Southern/Central Appalachians as a
closed upper low swivels from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley.
Much of this part of the country will experience beneficial
moisture; however there will be embedded locations that have the
potential for hourly rates of 1-1.5 inches/hour that could result
in localized flash flooding. This is despite limited instability 
(similar to Day 2 across the Mid- South), as the dynamics of the 
closed low (notable PV anomaly with enhanced divergence aloft via 
left exit region of ~130 kt jet streak @ 250 mb) may result in 
localized 2" exceedance in the Ohio/Tennessee Valley (with terrain
forcing primarily driving any localized 2" exceedance along/east 
of the Southern/Central Appalachians).

Campbell/Churchill


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 30 2025 - 12Z Fri Oct 31 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST...

The system mentioned for the day 2 period will continue to advance
up the Eastern Seaboard directing widespread rain to the Northeast.
Guidance is suggesting the highest rainfall accumulations will
focus over northern New Jersey and southeast New York where WPC 
has areal averages of 1.5-2.5 inches forecast for this period. This
part of the region is where the best potential for reaching or 
exceeding local FFG guidance so a Marginal Risk area remains in 
effect for portions of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, and 
Connecticut.


Campbell
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)