ACUS01 KWNS 311238
SWODY1
SPC AC 311236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN
WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this
afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail
producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains.

...High Plains...
A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US,
with a weak trough over the western states.  A plume of monsoonal
moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of
afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies.  The strongest cells
will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain
before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon.  Forecast
soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse
rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical
shear for transient supercell structures.  This may be sufficient
for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and
damaging winds.

...Mid Atlantic Region...
A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and
far southern New England this morning.  Strong heating to the south
of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to
moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse
rates.  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of
the front by mid-afternoon.  A few severe storms are possible, with
locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern.

...ID/Western MT...
A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV
lifting northward.  Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the
trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon
across parts of ID and western MT.  The strongest cells will be
capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025

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