FOUS30 KWBC 270821
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 27 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 28 2025

... THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN Appalachians AND EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...
 
...SOUTHERN Appalachians/SOUTHEAST...

The latest guidance continues to focus heavy rainfall in the higher
terrain and surrounding locations in the Carolinas, northern
Georgia and eastern Tennessee. During this period, low pressure
will pivot to the northeast allowing for convection to spread 
across the southern Appalachians and Southeast. 40km neighborhood
probabilities of 24hr qpf exceeding 5" is between 15-25% over 
portions of far western Carolinas, while EAS neighborhood 
probabilities of exceeding 3" is up to 5%. Localized amounts of 
over 2" are possible especially in the terrain. Isolated maximums 
near 2 inches remain possible across the region. The inherited 
Marginal Risk area was maintained given the elevated threat for 
local flash flooding. 

...Eastern Florida...

A few locations observed several inches of rainfall that lead to
areas of flash flooding yesterday. Additional rainfall this 
morning will continue to be impactful to the vulnerable coastal
locations. An approaching upper level trough is helping to aid
divergence/difluence aloft. Onshore flow is allowing for sufficient
moisture and instability to move ashore, and the low- level flow 
and upper level flow are nearly balanced, implying storms with 
heavy rainfall shouldn't go advance too far inland. Back building
and training of convection will be possible. A Marginal Risk area
was hoisted for the eastern coastline given the potential impacts
from additional rainfall over saturated soils.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 28 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025

...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY...

A cold front effecting from the West into the Plains will have
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with
it during this period. While rain falling over parts of the central
U.S. will be beneficial given decent drought conditions, there is 
a growing signal that heavy rain may focus over the Mid/Lower 
Mississippi Valley thus increases the risk the potential for 
isolated areas of flash flooding. A Marginal Risk was introduced 
covering southeast Missouri, eastern Arkansas, northern 
Mississippi, northwest Alabama, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025 - 12Z Thu Oct 30 2025

...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL Appalachians/SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...

The closed low will pivot from the Mid-South to the Southeast/Mid-
Atlantic allowing for showers and thunderstorms to overspread the
Tennessee Valley/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic region. Recent rainfall
over this region will have lowered local FFG and elevated risk for
heavy rainfall and local flash flooding concerns. A Marginal Risk
area spans from northern Georgia northward to West Virginia and
from central Kentucky to the western Carolinas and Virginia.

Campbell
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