AWUS01 KWNH 242115
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-250300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1208
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Portions of the TX Panhandle...Northwest
TX...Southwest and Central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242112Z - 250300Z

SUMMARY...Pockets of heavy showers and thunderstorms may expand a
bit more in coverage going into the evening hours. A localized
threat of flash flooding will exist.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
cooling convective tops across parts of the TX Big Country up into
far southwest OK. The convection is becoming increasingly aligned
with strengthening deep layer ascent associated with stronger
upper-level jet dynamics downstream of the approaching upstream
trough over the southern Rockies. This is coinciding with MLCAPE
values of near 1000 J/kg focused up in close proximity also with a
frontal zone draped across the region.

Some additional uptick in the coverage of convection is expected
going into the evening hours as larger scale forcing increases
further and interacts with the modest pool of moisture and
instability nosing up across the region. This will generally be
near and east of an area of surface low pressure over the TX
Panhandle, but more closely aligned with areas of strongest
low-level convergence and frontogenetical forcing near the front.

By later this evening, some of the uptick in the coverage of
convection is expected to involve central OK as the southerly
low-level jet here strengthens and yields stronger moisture transport.

Expect rainfall rates in the near-term to be capable of reaching
well into the 1 to 2 inches/hour range, but with some
cell-training concerns in place, there may be some localized
swaths of additional rainfall totals reaching 2 to 4+ inches by
late this evening. This is consistent with a blend of the 18Z HREF
and 12Z REFS guidance.

This will drive a threat for mainly localized and urban flash
flooding concerns.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...LUB...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37119822 36819707 36109666 34929704 33889811 
            33559921 33580013 34170070 34820090 35840067 
            36829965 

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