ACUS01 KWNS 301216
SWODY1
SPC AC 301215

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from
the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys, over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across
Wyoming and Colorado.

...Mid MS Valley...
A long-lived linear MCS is tracking eastward across parts of IA/MO
this morning.  This activity is expected to persist through much of
the day and affect parts of IL/IN/OH/Lower MI.  Ample low-level
moisture is present across this region, and the convectively-aided
shortwave trough associated with the MCS will provide sufficient
vertical shear for some concern for a few severe wind gusts through
the day.  An upgrade to SLGT risk was considered for this region,
but given the expansive shield of clouds ahead of the storms,
coupled with a consensus of model guidance showing limited intensity
to the storms, chose to maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate at 1630z.

...High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, ample mid-level moisture is present across the
central Rockies into WY.  This will lead to scattered thunderstorms
by early afternoon from parts of central CO into central/western WY.
 Winds aloft are slightly stronger than yesterday, which will
provide an uptick in vertical shear and convective organization.
Hail and gusty winds will be possible with storms that form over the
higher terrain and spread into the adjacent plains through the
afternoon and early evening.

...Northeast...
A weak surface cold front will sag southward across New England and
parts of NY/PA today, with a moist and moderately unstable air mass
expected ahead of the boundary.  Low-level convergence along the
front will be weak, with only widely scattered thunderstorm coverage
expected.  However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level
lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least
small hail in the storms that form this afternoon.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/30/2025

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