ACUS01 KWNS 291204
SWODY1
SPC AC 291203

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the
central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa.
Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over
western areas.

...CO/NE/IA...
Morning water vapor loops show a large ridge over the central US,
with a plume of ample mid-level moisture moving northward across the
southern Rockies.  Northeasterly surface winds across northeast CO
will help moisten/destabilize the region, leading to thunderstorms
off the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon.  These storms will
be in a region of moderate CAPE, but rather weak vertical shear and
winds aloft.  Clusters of storms capable of small hail and gusty
winds will build eastward through the afternoon into a progressively
more moist/unstable airmass, and may eventually intensify into an
organized MCS across NE/western IA.  This activity may persist well
into the night with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...WY/MT...
Multiple weak shortwave troughs are tracking northward across the
Great Basin today toward the northern Rockies.  This will lead to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of southwest MT
and northern WY.  Surface dewpoints in the 50s along with strong
daytime heating will result in considerable CAPE, along with
sufficient westerly winds aloft for some convective organization.
Initial storms over the higher terrain will pose some risk of hail
and gusty winds.  As the activity builds eastward into the plains, a
greater risk for large hail and severe winds will likely develop
through the evening.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/29/2025

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