ACUS02 KWNS 290557
SWODY2
SPC AC 290555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi
Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England,
and the northern/central High Plains on Wednesday.

...Central High Plains Vicinity...
A mid-level shortwave trough will dig slowly southward across
southern Montana and into northern Wyoming on Wednesday. South of
this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen to around 30 knots amid
moderate instability with steep mid-level lapse rates. Some
supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail and severe
wind gusts. The number of organized supercells is the primary
question. At this time, it appears the threat may be relatively
isolated. However, if more than a few organized supercells appear
likely, greater probabilities may be needed.

...Midwest...
Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from
northern Missouri into northern Illinois. As temperatures warm into
the 80s with dewpoints in the 70s by late morning, moderate to
strong instability is forecast with minimal inhibition. This should
allow ongoing convection (or renewed development along residual
outflow) to persist eastward through the day. The greatest threat
will be along the frontal zone where mid-level lapse rates will be
steeper and shear will be somewhat stronger. The narrow corridor of
favorable overlap between the greatest shear and instability with
questions about storm mode preclude higher probabilities at this time.

...Northeast...
Hot temperatures will develop across the Northeast on Wednesday with
moderate instability expected. Moderate mid-level flow will
overspread this region along the southern periphery of a strong
mid-level trough across southeastern Canada. This stronger shear may
permit a few supercell storms with a threat for large hail.
Elsewhere, isolated strong downburst winds amid the strong heating
will be the primary threat.

..Bentley.. 07/29/2025

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