ACUS02 KWNS 281726
SWODY2
SPC AC 281724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the
central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and
Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from
portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat
complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located
over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front
will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI
Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday
period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this
is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the
east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries,
with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from
northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast
KS.

Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas,
boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid
50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by
afternoon.

...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA...

This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger
mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and
low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during
the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the
surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support
effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial
supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more
line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east
across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity.
Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated
hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution.

...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the
moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience
better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to
points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY
indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be
possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep
midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft,
in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells
producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from
eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into
southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more
isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for
marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region,
steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe
wind gusts.

..ND...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave
impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy
will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer
moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm
temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong
mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight
hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated
marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop.

..Leitman.. 07/28/2025

$$
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