ACUS01 KWNS 191237
SWODY1
SPC AC 191235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this morning from
south Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
Localized wind damage will be possible later today from upper Ohio
Valley/central Appalachians into parts of the Mid Atlantic. Late
tonight, localized wind damage and possibly a brief tornado will be
possible from the northern Mid Atlantic into parts of southern New
England.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a powerful mid- to
upper-level trough from western Ontario southward to the central
Gulf Coast.  This upper feature will attain a negative tilt as it
moves towards the Eastern Seaboard tonight.  A cyclone analyzed this
morning over Lake Huron will move north-northeastward toward Hudson
Bay, while a trailing cold front will push east-southeastward
through parts of the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic.

...FL Panhandle vicinity...
An ongoing band of convection will continue to move eastward across
the northeast Gulf Coast as the airmass attempts to slowly
destabilize ahead of it.  The latest surface observations confine
the richer moisture to the immediate coastal counties (i.e., beaches
and bays) of the FL Panhandle, where upper 60s to low 70s deg F
dewpoints reside.  Relatively poor lapse rates will limit updraft
vigor and the overall coverage/intensity of strong to locally severe
storm activity.  Nonetheless, the moist low levels in the presence
of moderate speed shear in the surface-2km layer will perhaps
support an isolated threat for a brief/weak tornado and/or a
damaging gust.  This activity will likely weaken towards midday as
large-scale ascent focuses farther north and away from the region.

...Eastern OH into the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic
vicinity...
Buoyancy will remain quite limited through most of the day
along/ahead of the cold front from the upper OH Valley/central
Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic.  However, low/midlevel flow will
be strong, with 40-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer.  Recent
convection-allowing model guidance agrees in showing a developing
low-topped convective band initially over eastern OH spreading into
western PA coincident with weak instability.  Have correspondingly
adjusted the western bound of the wind risk to account for this
model trend.

Late in the period, somewhat richer low-level moisture (with
dewpoints in the low 60s F) will advect inland into northern parts
of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Buoyancy may become
sufficient for somewhat deeper convection, as indicated by a modest
increase in HREF calibrated thunderstorm probabilities between
06-12Z. With strong low-level flow/shear in place, locally damaging
wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany convection along
the front into early Monday morning.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/19/2025

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