FOUS30 KWBC 190736
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 19 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 20 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

We decided to remove the previous marginal risk area across far
southeast Ohio into West Virginia and a small portion of southwest
PA after viewing the latest HREF and RRFS probabilities. No changes
to the thinking that the frontal/pre-frontal precip expected to
push eastward across the Lower Lakes/Upper OH Valley/Central
Appalachians area Sunday will be very progressive. This and limited
instability will likely keep hourly rates under the FFG values that
are generally 1-2"/hr. The greatest rainfall rates likely with the
initial line of rain pushing eastward late morning/early 
afternoon. With this initial line, the HREF and RRFS mean 
probabilities of 1"+/hr rains are nearly zero. 

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 20 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 21 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK STATE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

The upper trof swinging through the Lower Lakes/OH Valley/Central 
Appalachians day 1 will become more negatively tilted, closing off 
an upper center day 2 across the northern Mid-Atlantic into 
Northern NY State and northern New England. 850-700 mb moisture 
flux will will remain anomalous, 2 to 4 standard deviations above 
the mean, ahead of this closing off system into the terrain of 
northern NY State and western New England. The RRFS and HREF 1"+/hr
probabilities do increase Monday morning over western New England 
into northern NY State, peaking at 15-30% in the marginal risk 
area. There is still spread in the model qpfs, but consensus for 
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall potential. Overall, no 
significant changes to the previous marginal risk area across 
northern NY State into western New England, with it still aligned 
with the latest WPC qpf maximum from northern NY State, across much
of VT, western MA, north-central NH into western ME.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 21 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 22 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec
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