ACUS02 KWNS 280601
SWODY2
SPC AC 280559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the
central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and
Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday.

...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity...
The forecast for these areas is the most uncertain. Based on current
guidance, it seems probable that much of Iowa/Minnesota will have
been impacted by outflow from an MCS on Monday night. Consequently,
there has been limited signal for development this far east during
Tuesday afternoon. Marginal severe probabilities will be maintained for now.

In southwestern Nebraska, a surface low is expected to develop. This
surface low will likely be weaker than on Monday. With more limited
mid-level ascent, low-level convergence, and warm temperatures
aloft, it is not clear whether convection will form during the
afternoon. Though not strong, there will be an increase in the
low-level jet during the evening. This could lead to some
development during early evening, but, again, there is very limited
model support for this.

The scenario with the most support is for convection to develop over
the Laramie Range and eventually progress eastward. However, this
development and eventual move off the terrain appears as though it
will occur further into the evening. This is likely due to lingering
inhibition in the Plains. For that reason, increasing wind
probabilities will be withheld this outlook.

...Montana into the central High Plains...
Confidence in storm initiation is highest within these locations.
Moisture pushed up against the terrain will favors widely scattered
to scattered convection by the afternoon. Effective shear will be
around 40 kts. Storms will at least be briefly supercellular after
initiation. However, with a drier boundary layer in place away from
the terrain, storms will tend to become outflow dominant quickly.
Furthermore, inhibition is expected to remain at lower elevations
which may mean storms will only be severe for a brief period.
Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Lower MI/IN/OH vicinity...
Given the potential for a strong MCS and related MCV to develop on
Monday night, there is some possibility for this activity to carry
over into Tuesday morning/afternoon. Guidance continues to show the
overnight convection dissipating. Shear will also become weaker as
these remnant track south/east. However, with a very moist airmass
in place across portions of these areas, trends in guidance will
need to be monitored for a possible increase in severe
probabilities.

..Wendt.. 07/28/2025

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