ABNT20 KNHC 162357
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave currently located over the central tropical Atlantic
is associated with a large area of showers and thunderstorms.  Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible as the
system moves across the Windward Islands late this weekend and
enters the Caribbean Sea by the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently developing several
hundred miles to the south of of Nova Scotia, Canada. This system is
expected to drop southeastward and then turn northeastward by this
weekend, and some subtropical or tropical development could occur
while the system moves over the Gulf Stream to the northeast of
Bermuda. By early next week, the system will move further
northeastward into colder waters, ending its chances for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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