MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 162316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162316 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162316Z - 170115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind/hail is expected with convection across
portions of the central High Plains early this evening. Severe
thunderstorm watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Southern influence of a northern High Plains short-wave
trough appears to be aiding convection across extreme northeast CO
into southwest NE. This activity is developing along a frontal zone
where surface-based parcels have reached convective temperatures due
to steep low-level lapse rates, especially across northeast CO.
While convection along the front is becoming somewhat linear in
nature, one notable supercell is lifting northeast across Kit Carson
County CO and will soon spread into Cheyenne County KS. This storm
has likely produced severe hail at times, along with gusty winds.
Wind profiles remain favorable for supercell structures, but frontal
convection may maintain more linear characteristics. Storm motions
also favor this activity being slightly undercut by the surface
front as the evening progresses. Until then, the greatest risk for
severe hail/wind is with any pre frontal supercells, but these
should remain isolated. At this time a severe thunderstorm watch is
not currently anticipated.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 10/16/2025

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39300278 41670081 41390011 40130078 38820188 39300278 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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