ACUS02 KWNS 161641
SWODY2
SPC AC 161639

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible from Friday evening through the overnight period
from the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will move northeast out of the northern Plains Friday,
with a positive-tilt trough extending southwestward across the
central Plains and into the Southwest. This trough will move slowly
eastward through the period, with a belt of southwest midlevel winds
increasing to 50 kt by Saturday morning over MO, KS and northern OK.

At the surface, a trough/wind shift will extend roughly from western
WI into central KS at 00Z, with 50s F dewpoints along and ahead of
it. Daytime heating near the boundary will yield 500 to perhaps 1000
J/kg MUCAPE, with deep-layer effective shear near 35 kt at 00Z.
Convergence near the boundary should support scattered thunderstorms
late in the day within the narrow uncapped zone from northwest OK
across KS and into northern MO/IA. Forecast soundings depict poor
lapse rates aloft, which will limit storm coverage and severity. But
marginal hail or gusts may occur with the strongest cells.

..Jewell.. 10/16/2025

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