ACUS01 KWNS 161242
SWODY1
SPC AC 161240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be
possible today across parts of the central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across the central
High Plains with this update. Within broad upper-level troughing
encompassing much of the western CONUS, a mid-level shortwave trough
will eject northeastward today from the central Rockies to the
northern Plains. The primary surface low associated with this
feature will likewise develop northward across the Dakotas through
the day, eventually reaching the ND/MB border late tonight. A cold
front will continue advancing east-southeastward over the
northern/central Plains, with surface lee troughing extending
southward from this front over the central High Plains of eastern
CO/western KS and vicinity. Secondary surface low development is
also forecast across this area. Low-level moisture ahead of the lee
trough/cold front will likely remain rather limited. But, generally
50s surface dewpoints should be present in a narrow corridor by late
afternoon/early evening across parts of western/central NE into
eastern CO/western KS along/near the front.

Daytime heating of this airmass should support weak destabilization
and eventual thunderstorm development as MLCIN gradually erodes. A
modest uptick in a southerly low-level jet may also aid thunderstorm
development through the evening. Any convection which forms along
the front may become supercellular given around 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear forecast. But, this activity should be undercut
fairly quickly by the cold front and become elevated. Isolated large
hail appears to be the main threat, but an occasional severe gust
may also occur with any thunderstorms that can remain surface based.
A brief window may also exist early this evening for a tornado as
low-level shear increases, before convection becomes mainly
elevated.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/16/2025

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