ACUS02 KWNS 160538
SWODY2
SPC AC 160536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible from Friday evening through the overnight period
from the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the central Rockies on
Friday, as southwest flow remains in place over much of the Great
Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across the central Plains, as moisture advection continues ahead of
the front. Surface dewpoints near the boundary are expected to reach
the lower 60s F by Friday afternoon, which will contribute to weak
destabilization from western Oklahoma northeastward into northwest
Missouri. Forecast soundings near the instability axis have MLCAPE
peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range during the evening. In
addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range
along much of the front. The resulting environment could support
supercells with isolated large hail if discrete mode is favored.
However, lapse are expected to remain weak suggesting any severe
potential will remain marginal. A few severe wind gusts may occur as
low-level flow increases ahead of the front during the evening. With
instability and deep-layer shear being sustained through the night,
a marginal severe threat should persist through late in the period.

..Broyles.. 10/16/2025

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