ACUS01 KWNS 251255
SWODY1
SPC AC 251253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid
Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across
much of North Dakota.

...Northeast States...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
progressing eastward across Ontario.  The associated cold front will
move through the St Lawrence Valley this morning and southward
across New England this afternoon.  Relatively hot/humid conditions
ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern NY/PA.  These
storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early
evening.  Coverage of intense storms is uncertain, but conditions
will be favorable for gusty/damaging winds in the cells that form.

...Northern Plains...
An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak
southern-stream trough currently moving across UT into WY.  Weak
lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid
in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon
across parts of eastern MT/northeast WY.  Thermodynamic parameters
appear favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. Model
guidance varies on handling this activity as it spreads eastward.
However, it appears reasonable that portions of this early activity
will persist through the evening and pose a risk of hail and locally
damaging winds across parts of ND. Later CAM solutions will
hopefully help better focus this threat area.

...KS/MO...
A large area of overnight convection has resulted in a
convectively-aided shortwave trough that will move into eastern KS
this afternoon.  Thunderstorms will likely re-develop near/east of
the remnant MCV and track into western MO during the evening.
Assuming sufficient heating can occur this afternoon along the
southeastern edge of the remnant clouds, a corridor of MRGL severe
threat will likely develop.  Isolated damaging wind gusts would be
the main concern.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/25/2025

$$
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