MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 042233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042233 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0399
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Northeast TX/Northwest LA into central/northern AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...

Valid 042233Z - 050000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado potential, including a strong (EF2+) tornado risk,
will be maximized through early evening across the ArkLaTex,
especially across far northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas, while
also increasing across north-central Arkansas. Tornado Watch 113
continues until 9pm CDT/02z.

DISCUSSION...Multiple intense supercells are ongoing at 525pm
CDT/2225z across far northeast Texas and extreme southeast
Oklahoma/far southwest Arkansas, including a particularly intense
supercell with prior tornadic history in Upshur County about 25
miles north of Longview. While the storm mode is complex, the
environment remains highly favorable for tornadoes, potentially
including a strong tornado risk amidst 150-200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH and
lower 70s F dewpoints with T/Td spreads of 10-15F. 

Farther north, semi-discrete supercells have intensified across
north-central Arkansas, and this trend is likely to continue with an
increasing tornado potential across this region. This zone will be
increasingly influenced by a pronounced early-evening strengthening
of the low-level jet, with current surface observations of
2.0-3.5mb/2-hourly pressure falls and dewpoints having recently
increased several degrees.

..Guyer.. 04/04/2025

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32529383 32379522 34069442 36459263 35779096 32529383 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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