MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 042229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042228 
ILZ000-MOZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...parts of southern Missouri and southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...

Valid 042228Z - 050000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms north of the warm front may produce hail and
perhaps some damaging gusts this evening, and a watch has been
issued.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing to the north of a warm
front lifting slowly northward across parts of northern Arkansas,
and a watch has been issued in this area. ACARS profiles from STL
show a strong surface stable layer north of the front that has been
getting shallower over time as it is eroded by a strong
south-southwesterly low-level jet. Above the surface stable layer,
ample buoyancy for hail production along with strong deep-layer
shear may support a hail risk. Additionally, with the stable layer
eroding with time, some downdrafts may be able to penetrate to the
surface to produce damaging gusts, given the strong flow aloft.
However, poor lapse rates aloft and messy storm modes may limit both
the hail threat due to higher freezing levels and weaker updrafts
and the wind threat due to weaker downdrafts.

..Supinie.. 04/04/2025

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37049353 37389309 37859247 38129074 38388952 38448847
            38318807 37938826 37379020 36819201 36699340 37049353 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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