697
WTNT35 KNHC 081142
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
800 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 51.6W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 51.6 West.  Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h).  This
general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest and north beginning on Friday. On the forecast
track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry is
forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday into
Friday.

RAINFALL: On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are
expected across the Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall
brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the
Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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