ACUS01 KWNS 051247
SWODY1
SPC AC 051245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough
moving quickly across the central/eastern Dakotas. This shortwave is
embedded within broad upper troughing that covers much of the
western and central CONUS. Upper ridging centered over the
Mid-Atlantic covers much of the eastern CONUS.

Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern ND/SD border
vicinity. A cold front extends southward from this low across
eastern SD and then back more southwestward across central NE and
northwest KS. This low is expected to progress quickly northeastward
just ahead of its parent shortwave, with the cold front making
steady eastward/southeastward progress as well. Airmass preceding
this cold front will be modestly moist, with dewpoints likely in the
upper 50s/lows 60s from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest,
despite relatively strong pre-frontal heating/mixing. Even with
these warm and modestly moist pre-frontal conditions, buoyancy will
remain limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Still,
thunderstorm development appears probable along the length of front
from the Upper Midwest into the central Plains. Given the limited
buoyancy and front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer vertical
shear, much of this development will likely be undercut quickly by
the progressive front.

This convective evolution should temper the overall severe
potential, despite seasonally strong mid-level southwesterly flow
near the frontal zone. Greatest severe threat is expected over
western/central KS, where the best overlap between the modest
buoyancy and moderate shear exists. A few more organized updrafts
capable of producing large hail and strong gusts are possible here.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/05/2025

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