AWUS01 KWNH 151138
FFGMPD
TXZ000-151607-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0696
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...South Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151137Z - 151607Z

Summary...Low confidence flash flooding scenario continues across
South-Central Texas. Localized 2-3" rainfall amounts atop
sensitive grounds within the highlighted area could drive
additional flash flooding through at least 16z.

Discussion...Over the last six hours, a nearly stationary complex
of thunderstorms over South-Central Texas has resulted in
estimated rainfall totals of 2-5" and several reports of flash
flooding in Real and Uvalde County. Convection with embedded
2-2.5"/hour rainfall rates has exhibited periods of training and
backbuilding on the eastern and western fringes of the complex. 

As suggested by these efficient rates, the environment remains
conducive for effective warm rain production, with 1.9-2.1" PWATs
noted per recent mesoanalysis data. A west-east oriented
instability gradient is also noted -- separating negatively
buoyant air from uncapped 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the eastern
side of the gradient. Going forward, the slow moving forcing (MCV
and larger scale vorticity max) could maintain the ongoing
activity, while driving additional development which could
backbuild as the regime results in northerly Corfidi vectors
partially directed into the minimally capped, unstable air. Recent
runs of the HRRR suggest localized 2-3" amounts are possible
through 16-17Z which could rive additional instances of flash
flooding in light of ongoing impacts and general sensitivity of
the region.

Asherman

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31329943 30629850 29449857 28789917 28409995 
            28600052 29490076 30520130 31210066 

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