FOUS30 KWBC 030743
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 03 2025 - 12Z Sat Oct 04 2025

...THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA'S EAST COAST...

...Florida's East Coast...

A closed mid-level disturbance will drift westward across the 
Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico today. This system
will bring tropical moisture from Imelda and Humberto with it. An 
inverted trough oriented along the Florida coast will interact with
the moisture advecting into the region and force scattered 
thunderstorm activity throughout the day. Modest instability 
between 500-1000 J/Kg MUCAPE could produce quarter to half inch 
rates over the slight risk area. Parts of central and southern 
Florida that have received between 2-4 (isolated 5) inches of rain
in the past 24 hours will be especially susceptible to runoff from
today's storms. Neighborhood exceedance probabilities of 5 inches 
are between 20-40% across Florida's east coast today.

...Great Basin...

Additional rainfall is forecast to occur beneath the upper low,
which will continue propagating through the interior West today. 
Recent heavy rainfall over portions of the Great Basin will likely
prime surfaces for runoff from additional precipitation. Burn 
scars in central and southern Idaho continue to be of concern from 
today's storms, the bulk of which should occur this morning into 
afternoon before the upper low moves directly over the Great Basin 
and instability weakens. HREF EAS exceedance probabilities of over 
1 inch are between 15-35% over northern/central Nevada where PWATs 
will be between 2-3 standard deviations above normal.

Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 04 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 05 2025

...THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA'S EAST COAST...

...Florida's East Coast...

Thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop along the 
inverted trough axis oriented north-south along Florida's east 
coast on Saturday. Moisture will lift north along with the mid-
level disturbance. The inherited slight and marginal risk areas 
were maintained due to a mostly consistent signal for excessive 
rainfall over the east central coast. Ensemble exceedance
probabilities of 2 inches are between 5-10% across the marginal
risk area. 48 hour totals between 3-5 inches (local 6" will likely
make overcoming flash flood guidance a bit easier.

...Central Gulf Coast...

The same moisture regime impacting the Florida peninsula will focus
over the central Gulf Coast this weekend. Mid-level vorticity will
lift into the area on Saturday, providing forcing for convection 
along the immediate Louisiana/Mississippi coast. Anywhere between 
4-6 inches of rain may occur over far southeastern Louisiana 
through Saturday night. Despite 2" ensemble exceedance 
probabilities being relatively low (5-10%), the multi day nature 
of the rainfall could still produce isolated instances of flash flooding.

Kebede


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 05 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 06 2025

...THERE'S A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

...Central Gulf Coast...

The mid-level disturbance continues propagating westward toward the
positively tilted upper trough centered over the West on Sunday.
Thus, the heavy rainfall threat will likely bleed over from 
Saturday evening into Sunday morning for portions of the Central 
Gulf Coast, before dissipating beneath diminished support aloft.
PWATs of 2-2.5" and instability between 500-1000 J/Kg MUCAPE could
churn out rain rates between 1-1.5"/hr Saturday morning into
afternoon. Ensemble exceedance probabilities of 2 inches are 
between 5-15% along the far southeastern Louisiana to Florida 
panhandle corridor, which supports the marginal risk area in place.

...Southeast Coast...

Inverted troughing continues along the Florida/Southeast Coast
through the latter part of this weekend. Anomalous moisture (2-3 
stndv) will continue interacting with the surface boundary to 
generate scattered to isolated thunderstorms across the 
Florida/Georgia coast. Rainfall totals of 1-3" are likely along 
the Florida/Georgia/South Carolina coast on Saturday. The latest 
guidance has trended away from tropical moisture making its way 
inland, therefore a marginal risk was maintained for much of the 
Southeast Coast.

Kebede
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)