ACUS02 KWNS 280447
SWODY2
SPC AC 280445

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible Monday through
Monday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs
concerning the larger-scale flow evolution through this period.
Amplification within the westerlies is forecast to translate
eastward, with mid-level ridging building across much of interior
Canada and adjacent portions of the northern U.S. and downstream
troughing slowly digging across the northwestern Atlantic through
Canadian Maritimes and northern New England.  Upstream, large-scale
troughing across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North
America may lose some amplitude, as a couple of embedded short waves
progress northeastward inland of coastal areas.  However, it appears
that deeper troughing will be reinforced offshore of the southern
British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by a couple of much more
vigorous digging short wave perturbations, which models indicate
will probably provide support for renewed strong cyclogenesis across
the northeastern Pacific.

In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes preceding this regime,
mid-level troughing within generally weak flow is forecast to slowly
shift northeast and east of the southern Rockies into the Great
Plains Monday through Monday night.  However, a modest blocking
downstream high will probably be maintained across the Midwest, with
weak mid-level troughing lingering across the Southeast.

A pair of tropical cyclones are likely to continue slowly migrating
north-northwestward across parts of the subtropical western
Atlantic, including one north of the Bahamas toward the Carolina coast.

...Southeast Atlantic coastal areas...
Based on latest model output concerning the most probable track of
Tropical Depression Nine through 12Z Tuesday, the environment
becoming potentially conducive to low-topped supercells capable of
producing tornadoes, as it perhaps strengthens to a hurricane to the
east of the Florida Peninsula, will likely remain well offshore of
south Atlantic coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 09/28/2025

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