ACUS01 KWNS 071229
SWODY1
SPC AC 071228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast.

...Central High Plains into the northern Plains...
A shortwave trough within westerly mid-level flow will move
east/southeast across the central/northern Plains through tonight,
along the periphery of a meridionally-expanding upper-level ridge.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will expand east across the central
Plains, above a moist boundary layer (generally 60s F dew points)
and contributing to strong instability this afternoon with MLCAPE at
or above 2500 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across the higher terrain over the central High Plains,
and move east through this evening. Initial supercells will be
capable of large to very large hail, though transitioning into one
or more MCSs with an increase in damaging wind potential, including
significant severe gusts.

Thunderstorms are also expected to develop/re-intensify, across
central/eastern SD along a surface trough, with upscale growth into
an MCS capable of severe winds as it moves east, potentially into
southwest MN this evening before weakening. Given expectations for
greater coverage based on latest hi-res guidance, the Level
3/Enhanced Risk has been extended north across eastern SD/southwest
MN based on higher (30%) severe wind probabilities.

...Upper Ohio River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast...
A cold Front will move east today, and inpinge upon a moist (PW at
or above 1.75 in) and moderately unstable air mass, with afternoon
MLCAPE ranging from near 1000 J/kg across ME to 1500-2000 J/kg over
the upper OH Valley. The area will located along the southern fringe
of modest southwest mid-level flow, sufficient for some degree of
updraft organization. Scattered multicell/clusters of thunderstorms
developing this afternoon will pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts
with isolated stronger storms.

...Lower Ohio Valley into Ozarks...
Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon developing in the vicinity of
a southward-advancing cold front will have the potential for
isolated wet microbursts within a moist (PW 1.75 to over 2 inches)
air mass. Weak cloud-bearing layer shear should limit organization,
but overall storm coverage should be sufficient for isolated
damaging gusts.

..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/07/2025

$$
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