FOUS30 KWBC 060816
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 06 2025 - 12Z Mon Jul 07 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

...Carolinas/Southern Virginia...
Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast to move inland across
northeastern South Carolina early in the period and weaken as it 
moves into central North Carolina later today into the overnight.
The growing consensus of the model QPF has an "occluded look" to 
it, with the heaviest amounts setting up west of the track. Not 
much change was made to the previous Slight Risk area, with minor 
adjustments based on the new HREF guidance. This area reflects the 
HREF higher neighborhood probabilities for 3+ inches, which extend
from parts of the Pee Dee region and north-central SC through 
central NC into far south-central VA. 

...Central Texas...
Fueled by a lingering axis of deep moisture (2 to 2.25 PWs
according to recent runs of the RAP) and weak mid level energy
drawn south by an upstream ridge, concerns remain for additional
heavy rains and flooding across portions of North Texas back into
South-Central Texas and the Hill Country. QPF has trended upward
within the highlighted region, with the HREF once again showing a
strong signal for locally heavy amounts over 3 inches within the
Slight Risk area. These amounts would easily exceed FFGs over those
areas recently impacted by heavy amounts. Therefore, will continue
to monitor for the potential need to upgrade to a Moderate Risk 
for parts of the region.

...Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains/Ozarks...
A series of shortwaves will move through a broad upper trough
centered over the northern Plains, pushing a wavy cold front, that
extends from the upper Great Lakes back into the central Plains, 
farther south. A deep moisture pool ahead of the front (PWs over 2 
inches in some locations) will fuel widespread shower and storm 
coverage. Overnight guidance indicates that in addition to the 
ample moisture, favorable upper jet dynamics and some potential for
storm training, will contribute to a greater threat for heavier 
amounts (2-3 inches) across parts of Lower Michigan. However, 
locally heavy amounts, along with isolated flooding concerns, 
cannot be ruled out further southeast along and ahead of the front.

...Central and Southern High Plains into the Southern Rockies...
Moist upslope flow will contribute to afternoon storm initiation
along the high terrain, with the guidance continuing to present a 
notable signal for organized development contributing to heavy 
amounts across portions of western Kansas and Nebraska. The 
overnight HREF indicates 2-3 inches are likely for parts of the 
region. Storms are expected to remain less organized further to
south, but may fire and produce isolated flooding concerns across
the more vulnerable parts of central and eastern New Mexico.

...Southern Louisiana/Mississippi...
Models show an upper low over the northeastern Gulf retrograding
westward back along the Gulf Coast. This will bring increasing rain
chances to the region, with the potential for heavy amounts. A
Marginal Risk was maintained for parts of southern Louisiana and
southwestern Mississippi, where the HREF presents a strong signal
for amounts over 2 inches.

Pereira
 

Day 2 
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 07 2025 - 12Z Tue Jul 08 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...

...Eastern North Carolina to Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey...
Although the surface circulation may no longer be well-defined, 
the mid level remnants and an its associated plume of deeper 
moisture are expected to lift north from eastern North Carolina 
along the Mid-Atlantic Coast ahead of an upstream trough, bringing
the potential for locally heavy rain and perhaps some isolated 
flooding concerns from eastern North Carolina to eastern 
Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

...Northeast to Mid Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... 
A frontal boundary will continue to slide farther east across the 
Northeast this period. Deep moisture ahead of the boundary (PWs 
1.75-2 inches and 2-3 std dev above normal), along with favorable 
upper jet forcing are expected to contribute to some organized 
heavier amounts from western and northern New York into parts of 
northern New England. Less organized activity is expected farther 
southeast. However, once again locally heavy amounts and isolated 
flooding concerns cannot be ruled out for areas back through the 
Ohio Valley into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ozark region.

...Southern Plains...
The latest HREF shows that activity developing over parts of Texas
on Day 1 may continue into Day 2, producing additional heavy
amounts and prolonging flooding concerns across parts of Texas
including portions of South-Central Texas and the Hill Country 
northeastward through North Texas...

...Upper Midwest to the Southwest...
Amplifying southerly low level winds over the Plains will support
increasing moisture across the central into the northern Plains.
This moisture along with mid level energy moving out into the
region, will support widespread showers and thunderstorms, with 
the guidance showing a signal for organized activity developing 
over the central High Plains. Forecast confidence is limited by 
significant model spread in the details. However, the potential for
at least isolated flash flooding concerns cannot be ruled out.

Farther to the south, activity again is expected to be less
organized. But again, cannot rule out at least an isolated flash
flooding concern, especially across vulnerable portions of eastern
and central New Mexico.

Pereira


Day 3 
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 08 2025 - 12Z Wed Jul 09 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE MIDWEST
AND THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...Northeast through the Ohio Valley...
A cold front will continue to slide slowly southeast across the
Northeast and the Mid Atlantic. Deepening moisture ahead of the
boundary (increasing above 2 inches in many locations) will raise
the potential for at least locally heavy amounts and isolated
flooding to occur.

...Midwest to the Southern High Plains/Rockies...
An upper level shortwave and associated axis of deeper moisture may
produce storms with locally heavy amounts from the mid Mississippi
Valley/Great Lakes region back through the mid Mississippi and
lower Missouri valleys into the southern Plains.

Meanwhile, low level upslope flow may produce another round of
showers and storms developing along the southern Rockies into the
High Plains.

Pereira 

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