ACUS02 KWNS 240552
SWODY2
SPC AC 240551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New
England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible
with the strongest storms.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will weaken as it moves slowly
east on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, a broad 35 to 45 knot
mid-level jet will extend from the Southeast to New England and the
Northeast. A surface low will deepen slightly as it moves through
the eastern Great Lakes.

...Mid-Atlantic to New England...
Extensive thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the
beginning of the period from the central Appalachians into the
eastern Great Lakes. This will result in widespread cloudcover and
minimal surface heating across the warm sector on Thursday. However,
upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and gradually cooling temperatures
aloft will result in some instability. Around 40 knots of effective
shear and cyclonically curved hodographs may support some storm
organization, but overall, expect the weak instability to limit the
overall severe weather threat.

...Southeast...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front
across the Southeast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures
in the low 80s. Despite the favorable instability, weak lapse rates
(<6 C/km) and only modest shear (25 to 30 knots) will limit storm
intensity. Stronger updrafts amid 2+ inch PWAT values will support
the potential for some water loaded downdrafts Thursday
afternoon/evening.

...Carolinas into Virginia...
Slightly greater severe weather chances may be present across the
Carolinas into Virginia Thursday afternoon where moderate
instability and moderate shear may overlap. Lapse rates will still
remain quite weak, but moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of
effective shear may result in a few stronger storms/clusters capable
of damaging wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 09/24/2025

$$
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