ACUS02 KWNS 230558
SWODY2
SPC AC 230556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are
expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will extend from the Great
Lakes to the southern Plains at 12Z Wednesday. This trough will
drift slowly southeast through the period with a broad mid-level jet
extending from Texas to the Northeast. A weak surface low will move
northeast along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to
the Upper Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians...
Extensive convection is expected along the cold front in the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday morning.
Expansive cloudcover will limit heating across a moist warm sector
featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moist airmass
will result in weak instability ahead of the cold front from
Mississippi to southern Indiana and Ohio. A broad zone of 30 to 40
knots of mid-level flow over this warm sector will provide ample
shear for storm organization if stronger updrafts can develop.
Expect some stronger storms, particularly where any filtered heating
may result in greater instability, but overall expect severe chances
to be more isolated/sporadic given the relatively weak lapse
rates/instability.

...South Texas into Louisiana...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a cold front across
central Texas Wednesday morning. These storms will likely weaken
during the morning as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Moderate
instability is forecast to develop south of the front which will
support redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Shear will be
relatively weak along this zone (20 to 25 knots), but convergence
along the front, moderate instability, and PWAT values near 2 inches
may support a few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/23/2025

$$
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