ACUS03 KWNS 040707
SWODY3
SPC AC 040706

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the
central High Plains on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Zonal upper flow, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses, will
become established over the northern CONUS as an upper trough
continues to meander along the CA coastline on Sunday. A weak
surface trough will become established over the Northeast while a
relatively nebulous surface pattern will characterize much of the
remaining CONUS. Widespread rich low-level moisture, amid an
uncapped airmass, is expected across much of the U.S. east of the
Rockies on Sunday afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development
across the Great Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/MS Valley and
toward the Carolina Piedmont. Weak upslope flow along the central
High Plains, beneath cooler temperatures aloft, will promote
adequate instability amid modest vertical wind shear to support an
isolated severe threat.

...Central High Plains...
By Sunday afternoon peak heating, low 60s F surface dewpoints will
advect northwestward across western NE into eastern CO and WY,
beneath 8.5 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, promoting over 2000
J/kg MLCAPE over several locales. By early evening, modest 500 mb
westerlies will overspread a 25 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet
across the central High Plains, resulting in up to 40 kts of
effective bulk shear. There is an appreciable chance for a few of
the stronger storms to organize into multicells and supercells,
especially across northeastern CO into western NE, where the best
buoyancy/shear overlap should occur. Isolated severe hail and wind
are the main threats, though a tornado could not be ruled out,
especially if a sustained supercell can develop.

..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025

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