ACUS11 KWNS 031958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031957 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-032200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484...

Valid 031957Z - 032200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will spread east-southeast through
early evening. Damaging winds will remain the primary hazard, with
isolated large hail possible as well.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell that initially formed in
southwest NY has produced a swath of damaging winds (with measured
gusts of 49-53 kts in the BGM vicinity) and large hail, reported up
to golf-ball size thus far. Additional updrafts have formed in both
its forward and trailing flank, which should help sustain an
organized cluster to the east-southeast over the next few hours with
cold pool temperatures dipping into the upper 50s. With upper 80s to
around 90 F temperatures from the Lower Hudson Valley east and
south, a swath of damaging winds appears probable through early
evening. Other multicell clusters will be capable of mainly isolated
strong gusts as they impinge on the warmer boundary layer across the
coastal plain.

..Grams.. 07/03/2025

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   42187463 42407409 42507354 42387219 41987129 41637128
            41107197 40677341 40437402 40367451 40527529 40817563
            41117578 41457584 41647508 42187463 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

$$
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