ACUS02 KWNS 140508
SWODY2
SPC AC 140506

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday.

...Discussion...

A pair of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the northern
Rockies and the Upper Midwest on Monday. The upper trough oriented
over the eastern Dakotas/MN will lift north into Canada through
early evening, while the northern Rockies upper trough meanders
slowly eastward, developing an upper cyclone over MT/WY. Another
upper cyclone is expected to persist over the Carolinas, while upper
riding builds across the Pacific coast states and Midwest.

At the surface, seasonal boundary layer moisture will be in place
across the southern and central Plains into the MS Valley, resulting
in pockets of weak to moderate instability. Any stronger instability
is likely to remain displaced from stronger vertical shear, which
will be quickly shifting northward from the Upper Midwest into
Canada with the departing upper shortwave trough. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will still be possible within a corridor of
60s F dewpoints and moderate instability from the Ozarks vicinity
into MN within a low-level warm advection regime. However, severe
potential will largely remain low given limited shear and forcing
for ascent. The exception could be a strong storm or two in
MN/western WI where effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt and
MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg will be in place. However, given the upper
trough will be departing the region, subsidence may limit storm
coverage/longevity across the area.

Additional scattered storms are possible across parts of the
northern/central High Plains ahead of a weak surface front/trough.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place, and strong heating will
aid in steepened low-level lapse rates amid a deeply mixed boundary
layer. Severe potential should remain limited given weak
shear/instability, but inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles
could foster locally gusty winds with any showers/thunderstorms.

..Leitman.. 09/14/2025

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