AWUS01 KWNH 250957
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-251530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0511
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Central and Southern NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250955Z - 251530Z

SUMMARY...Some additional clusters of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms will be possible going into the morning hours which
will maintain at least some potential for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The predawn GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
dual-pol radar still shows some areas of locally heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity impacting areas of central and southern NM
along with far southwest TX. A slow-moving shortwave trough over
the Southwest continues to slowly pivot eastward, and this is
driving some right-entrance region upper-jet dynamics which
coupled with the very moist and modestly unstable airmass across
the region should favor a threat for these clusters of convection
to persist into the morning hours.

PWs across the region remain the same as earlier and are on the
order of 1.3 to 1.5 inches which represents the 90th to 95th
percentile of climatology. CIRA-ALPW data continues to show a deep
layer tropical connection of moisture lifting north across Mexico
and up across the southern Rockies/High Plains around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge centered over the Eastern U.S.

The latest RAP analsyis shows MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg
locally over the region, and this coupled with the very moist
environment and local ororgaphics should still favor some rainfall
rates that may reach 1 to 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger cells.

The 06Z HREF and 00Z REFS data suggests some potential for
additional FFG exceedances going into the morning hours, with
locally an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain possible going through
15Z (9AM MDT) where the stronger remaining clusters of convection
persist.

Therefore, a threat for additional areas of flash flooding will be
maintained at least over the next several hours. This will include
locally enhanced runoff concerns for the normally dry
washes/arroyos and any burn scar locations including for the
Sacramento Mountains.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34810443 34410361 33090363 31500454 30930536 
            31040579 31210604 31590672 31690776 31900802 
            32480778 33230713 34120597 

$$
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