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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
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Mike Powell | All | DAY1 2/5 Risk Area Posted |
June 24, 2025 8:16 AM * |
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ACUS01 KWNS 241239 SWODY1 SPC AC 241238 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows an expansive upper ridge over much of the eastern CONUS, and upper troughing across the Great Basin vicinity. A northern-stream shortwave trough currently over SK is forecast to progress quickly eastward through MB and ON, leading to some dampening of the eastern CONUS ridge. Several convectively augmented vorticity maxima are also expected to move through the northern and central High Plains ahead of the more substantial shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin. This evolution will lead to some dampening of the northwestern periphery of this ridge as well. Like the upper pattern, the surface pattern is currently dominated by eastern CONUS ridging, with an ill-defined frontal zone between the warm and moist airmass under the ridge and a more continental airmass across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Recent surface analysis places a low over western KS with a stationary boundary extending northeastward from this low to another low over WI. A more progressive cold front extends northeastward from the WI low through central ON. The moist airmass (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) south of this boundary will destabilize with daytime heating, and scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level convergence during the afternoon from the central Plains through the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm strength/organization and contributing to an outflow-dominant storm mode. Damaging gusts will be possible with any of the stronger line segments. Greater severe potential is expected across the northern and central High Plains (discussed below). ...Northern/Central High Plains... Post-frontal southeasterly upslope flow is anticipated across the region today, helping to offset diurnal mixing and keep dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s this afternoon. The increased low-level moisture and strong heating will foster airmass destabilization by the early afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorm expected. Initiation is expected over the higher terrain before then moving northeastward into the lower elevations. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support supercells initially capable of producing large to very large hail. A trend towards more outflow-dominant structures is anticipated with time, with one or more line segments capable of strong to severe gusts developing. This outflow-dominant character is forecast to limit the tornado threat, but a locally enhanced threat may exist from southeast WY into the southern NE Panhandle and far northeast CO where the best overlap between low-level moisture and southeasterly surface winds is expected. ...Southern Rockies... Increasing low to mid-level moisture will support numerous to widespread thunderstorms across the southern Rockies today. Very shear will be weak, promoting a mostly disorganized multicellular mode. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/24/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
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