ACUS02 KWNS 230602
SWODY2
SPC AC 230600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
WY...NORTHEAST CO...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NE/SD...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into
southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast
Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible
from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the
Southwest into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Downstream, a strong
mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of Ontario and Quebec,
resulting in some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the East.

At the surface, a warm front will move northward across parts of the
central Plains, while the eastern portion of the front will be
draped somewhere from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes
vicinity. A cold front will move southward across parts of the
northern Great Lakes and Northeast/New England.

...WY/CO into western NE/SD...
Increasing low-level moisture beneath generally steep midlevel lapse
rates will support moderate destabilization across parts of eastern
WY into northeast CO. Veering wind profiles will support organized
storms, and isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop from
late afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail, localized
severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are all possible. Some upscale
growth will be possible through the evening, which could spread at
least an isolated severe threat into parts of western NE/SD. The
longevity of the severe threat into Tuesday night is uncertain, due
to increasing low-level stability.

...Lower MO River Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes...
In the wake of morning convection, strong heating/destabilization
will support development of strong to potentially severe storms from
parts of eastern KS/southeast NE into the Midwest and Great Lakes,
along the periphery of the upper ridge. Development will likely be
focused near an outflow-influenced front, and potentially near any
remnant MCVs. Deep-layer shear is expected to be relatively weak
along/ahead of the front, but unidirectional southwesterly flow will
support potential for outflow-driven clusters capable of locally
damaging wind.

Corridors of greater severe threat may eventually evolve within the
broad Marginal Risk across this region, but confidence in the
placement of the front and any MCVs or other vorticity maxima
precludes higher probabilities at this time.

...Parts of the Northeast/New England...
Midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but relatively strong heating
will support moderate buoyancy by afternoon across parts of the
Northeast, along and ahead of the cold front. Stronger ascent and
deep-layer flow will remain north of the front, but sufficient flow
and steepening of low-level lapse rates will support a threat of
damaging gusts with any strong storms across the region. Storm
coverage is uncertain, but greater severe probabilities may
eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm
development during the afternoon and evening.

...Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic...
A remnant EML will gradually move southwestward along the periphery
of the upper ridge across parts of the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and
Southeast on Tuesday. While this will support strong buoyancy, there
is a considerable amount of spread regarding storm coverage across
this region Tuesday. At this time, the highest confidence in storm
development is over the southern Appalachians, where deep-layer
shear will be negligible underneath the upper ridge. If confidence
in storm coverage increases where slightly stronger flow aloft will
be present, severe probabilities may eventually be needed.

..Dean.. 06/23/2025

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