ACUS01 KWNS 161241
SWODY1
SPC AC 161240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the
primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of
the East.

...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS
Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating
northeastward over the lower OH Valley.  This mid-level feature will
be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb)
shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians
through the day.  In the low levels, a surface low over southeast
Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border
by late afternoon.  A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the
southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak
heating.  Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg
MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central
Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region.  A
strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve
over the upper OH Valley.  Largely unidirectional southerly flow and
elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging
gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this
activity.  The area of greatest model agreement for a convective
line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated
across western into central parts of PA.  Farther south, gradual
intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will
support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two
through early evening.

...Southeast...
The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east
through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level
jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by
mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North
Carolina.  An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe
thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass
(reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob).  Prior to a gradual
weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately
enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability
over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including
line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south).  Scattered
damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as
the severe threat shifts east through the period.

..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025

$$
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