ACUS11 KWNS 151730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151730=20
TNZ000-151830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 151730Z - 151830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon.
Damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes will be the main
concerns. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS is gradually progressing toward Middle TN from
the west as semi-discrete storms attempt to approach from northeast
MS. At the same time, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints continue to
advect northward, supporting gradual destabilization. MLCAPE may
exceed 500 J/kg, and when considering the strong low-level shear in
place (e.g. large, clockwise-curved hodographs with 500+ m2/s2
effective SRH per recent HTX and OHX VADs), QLCS circulations may
develop and support a tornado threat. Any preceding supercells that
can advance into middle TN in the aforementioned shear environment
will have the best chance at producing tornadoes. Furthermore,
severe wind gusts may also accompany the approaching QLCS. As such,
a Tornado Watch will be needed soon.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35068793 35948755 36518597 36418487 36058441 35578447
            35268482 35098537 35028642 35068793=20
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