ACUS02 KWNS 060558
SWODY2
SPC AC 060556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great
Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas
east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts
of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the
southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin
on the western flank of the surface high.

...Eastern Carolinas...
Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern
Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern
extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover
will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered
convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains
region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or
two could develop and produce localized gusty winds.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will
develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to
develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the
lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak
inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any
activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the
central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing
convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet.
With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce
small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low.

..Wendt.. 09/06/2025

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