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Message   Mike Powell    All   DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic   June 20, 2025
 8:13 AM *  

ACUS02 KWNS 200606
SWODY2
SPC AC 200604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO NY AND NORTHERN PA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the
northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across
the western CONUS on Saturday, as an embedded shortwave trough moves
from parts ID/MT into the Canadian Prairies. A surface low initially
over the northern Plains is forecast to move northeast through the
day, with a secondary surface low expected to develop along a cold
front across the central High Plains during the evening.

Downstream, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough (possibly augmented
by D1/Friday MCS development) is generally forecast to move from the
northern Great Lakes toward New England.

...Great Lakes into the Northeast...
An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the
northern Great Lakes, with other areas of elevated convection
possible farther south across lower MI. While there is some
uncertainty regarding MCS timing, some damaging-wind and hail threat
would accompany this system and any other robust morning convection
before spreading into Ontario.

The convectively augmented shortwave trough associated with the
potential MCS may continue to impinge upon the northeast periphery
of an expanding instability reservoir. Even if the morning MCS
weakens or stays in Canada, strong to potentially severe storms may
spread southward out of Ontario into the lower Great Lakes region,
and/or develop within a low-level warm advection regime. Damaging
winds may be the most common hazard, though low-level shear/SRH may
become sufficient for a localized tornado threat as well. Convection
may continue into late Saturday night with at least an isolated
severe threat.

Farther west, there is some potential for isolated storm development
during the afternoon/evening across the northern Great Lakes
vicinity, within a conditionally favorable environment. However,
with large-scale ascent expected to remain rather nebulous in the
wake of the departing MCS and shortwave trough, confidence is
currently low regarding this scenario.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
While there is some lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of
D1/Friday convection, strong to extreme buoyancy is likely to again
develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, along
and east of the cold front. However, very warm temperatures aloft
and generally weak large-scale ascent may tend to suppress storm
development across much of the strongly unstable warm sector. Strong
heating could support isolated development across parts of
NE/SD/eastern ND into northern MN near the surface low and front,
which would conditionally pose a severe threat given the favorable
parameter space.

Farther northwest, guidance continues to vary regarding the
magnitude of instability from eastern MT/northern WY into the
western Dakotas. Strong morning convection will be possible across
eastern MT, and some redevelopment may occur during the
afternoon/evening, depending on the extent to which the departing MT
shortwave trough can impinge upon favorable instability. A supercell
or two will be possible, with a localized threat for all severe hazards.

..Dean.. 06/20/2025

$$
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