AWUS01 KWNH 121301
FFGMPD
TXZ000-121802-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0424
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...South-Central TX into the TX Piney Woods region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121300Z - 121802Z

Summary...Flash flooding (some of which could be life threatening)
will continue this morning as training thunderstorms containing
localized hourly rainfall rates of 3-4" an hour continue.

Discussion...An axis of training thunderstorms containing
localized 3-4" an hour rainfall rates continues over South-Central
TX along a well defined cold pool. Over the last 12 hours, these
cells have resulted in prolific heavy rainfall amounts across the
area, with localized amounts of 7-10" observed across
South-Central TX into the Central TX Coastline. As highlighted in
MPD 423, inflow characterized by 1500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, minimal
CIN, 2-2.3" PWATs will continue to foster new cells upwind of the
complex, which will train given the parallel orientation of the
steering flow to the cold pool.

As such, additional flash flooding is expected to continue through
this morning and afternoon. Of note is that the HRRR and RRFS --
which are handling the ongoing activity the best -- are around 1-2
hours too slow with propagating the cold pool southward compared
to radar observations, which could suggest the upper-end of their
forecast rainfall amounts through 18z (7-8" are overdone.
However, in light of ongoing impacts and potential for extreme
3-4" hour rainfall rates, any additional rainfall will quickly
translate to runoff. Life threatening flash flooding impacts
remain possible atop areas hit hard earlier today, and over
sensitive urban areas.

Asherman

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31469471 30969391 29989405 29319464 28669558 
            28159725 28409872 28879936 29309932 29379876 
            29419765 29729705 30389676 31029624 31389561 
            
$$
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