AWUS01 KWNH 101428
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-102000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1150...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
927 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Corrected for discussion typo

Areas affected...western and northern KY and surrounding portions
of TN/IN/OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101400Z - 102000Z

Summary...Additional localized totals of 2-3" likely to lead to
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Streaks of moderate to heavy showers have been
ongoing early this morning across much of western KY into far
southern IN, producing hourly totals of 0.5-1.0" (with 3-hr totals
as high as 2.0-3.0". This efficient rainfall is occurring within
the warm sector of a mature low pressure system, centered over the
Midwest. A strong low-level jet (40-50 kts at 850 mb) is providing
ample moisture transport into the region, and low-level (925-850
mb) convergence is significant. This convergence is better
visualized via isentropic analysis with upglide most evident on
the 294K and 296K surfaces (centered near 900 mb) at 30-40 kts.
Aloft, the right-entrance region of a 100 kt jet streak is
providing divergence to compliment the low-level convergence, and
convection is expected to continue within this zone of highly
anomalous moisture (with PWs near 1.6", indicated to be near the
max moving average per BNA sounding climatology).

While the 00z/06z CAMs mostly indicate forward-looking 6-hr totals
maximized near 1", the HRRR and FV3 are indicating localized
totals closer to 1-2" (with 06z HREF 40-km neighborhood
probabilities for 2" exceedance as high as 25%). Given that
2.0-3.5" amounts have been recorded over the past 3-6 hrs (already
at or exceeding corresponding FFGs), additional isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are considered likely (as
the FLASH CREST unit streamflow response is already fairly robust
from southwest KY to the greater Louisville metro area).

Churchill

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39328439 38718390 37448548 36198733 36148874 
            36718898 37928762 38478667 38978573 

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